They say the Phils are a second-half team. From Jenkins to Hamels to Lidge, it seems every player has emphasized that the best baseball for this club is still to come.
Easy enough to say.
Last year it took the Phillies 162 games to lock down the NL East and this year they did it in just about 50 games, and, what's more, they kept it for another fifty. But now it is gone, at least for the time being. So for a largely unchanged team from last year, why are we to believe that this wasn't their "run"? That their best baseball isn't behind them?
To be honest, I'm not sure why to believe that, but I will. There are a few things I am damn sure of, and they are as follows:
Brett Myers will not pitch in the World Series this year - I hope I am wrong on this one, but I don't see a Philadelphia ballclub that is grabbing at Myers for support standing for very long. Whether the solution is Happ or Carrasco or another AL arm I'm not sure, but something has got to give.
Matt Holliday will not bat between Utley and Howard - Though the rumors were circulating and I had every intention of believing them, it now seems that the Fuentes/Holliday/Victorino mega-deal was mere media speculation and never had much water to it. So if we are to get excited as the trade-deadline approaches, it should be for Xavier Nady or another lefty in the bullpen, both of which are reasonable hopes.
The NL Wildcard will come from the Mississippi or east - If it isn't St. Louis, it will be our Fightin's or the Mets, hands down.
The NL West is trash at the moment but might again save all of it's energy for a last minute run at the prize. Though, come on? No one over 500? Unlikely.
In a time of silver trophies and men-left-on-base, it's hard to know where you'll end up in October, but, to put today's loss in perspective, let's look at the Phillies situation this time last year, July 24 2007, only 2 month's before taking the Division Title: 51-48 (.515) 5 games behind Mets.
So to be at 54-48 (.529) and only 1 game behind the Mets again, it seems we've got them just where we want them.
At least all of those Mets fans are out of town.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Blanton and Phils Fightin for the Hill
In April, I wrote a small piece about what Hank Steinbrenner might say about the Phillies situation up until then. I thought he would laud the efforts and stability of the bullpen, Tom Gordon not included. I also thought Hank would be uneasy about the starters, but hopeful that the pitching Mendoza could be maintained (6 IP, 3ER) to keep the pen healthy and rested.
Now, hours before Joe Blanton takes his first at-bat in the majors against Johan Santana, the season has shaped up just as I thought. The bullpen has been phenomenal so far (2.74 ERA) with 9 pitchers making contributions, although the credit should mostly go to Chad Durbin and Ryan Madson. These long-men have allowed an under-performing starting rotation to not pull the late-innings down with them. Brad Lidge and JC Romero, the expected aces of our pen, have operated almost exclusively in set-up and closing situations (although Brad Lidge did warm up 6 times in the All-Star Game!) and have flourished in their respective niches.
As said, the starters are under-performing, but, to be honest, this was what was expected by many people. In March, did I really think that Kendrick would still be able to fool people with only a sinker? Did I think Eaton would be able to rise above his resume of mediocrity and stun the city? Did I think Myers was solid enough to flip-flop between starting and closing and then back? Obviously, the answer is no, but what I did think was that our explosive offense could buy our guys a few innings here and there, allowing them to go deeper into games. For example, Kendrick in 20 starts this season has won 8 and only lost 4, still not throwing one wild pitch (which is impressive for a sinker-baller). His ERA (4.74), however, is less than impressive and makes you wonder how he could have managed twice as many wins as losses. Compare this to Oliver Perez of the Mets who has a similar ERA (4.36), just as many appearances/innings and nearly twice as many punch outs (95 to 49), but is a .500 pitcher (6-6). The obvious explanation for this is that the Phillies have simply won more games but, as evidenced by the gravity of tonight's game, the two teams are exactly tied.
Soon enough, we will see two teams battle for first place in the most contested division in the Majors at Shea Stadium. First it will be Johan Santana, who, much like the reception after a funeral, has been good but disappointing. Then it will be Joe Blanton, the mid-season pick-up from the A's with poor 08 numbers but undeniably scary stuff. Then Santana, then Blanton and so on.
Santana is the better pitcher going into the game. That is for sure. What makes baseball different than almost anything else, though, is that there are no definites, no sure-bets, no impossibilities. That is, the better pitcher before the game doesn't always win, and often doesn't.
Ringo Starr once reasoned that because he was the drummer for the greatest band in the world, he must be the greatest drummer in the world. Panglossian quandaries aside, I think this reasoning holds true for baseball, because in the game where something doesn't happen on every pitch but anything can happen on any pitch, we can only look to the scoreboard after the game to see who was really better that day, and I hope tonight, at least for tonight, Joe Blanton will be the best pitcher on the best team in the East.
Now, hours before Joe Blanton takes his first at-bat in the majors against Johan Santana, the season has shaped up just as I thought. The bullpen has been phenomenal so far (2.74 ERA) with 9 pitchers making contributions, although the credit should mostly go to Chad Durbin and Ryan Madson. These long-men have allowed an under-performing starting rotation to not pull the late-innings down with them. Brad Lidge and JC Romero, the expected aces of our pen, have operated almost exclusively in set-up and closing situations (although Brad Lidge did warm up 6 times in the All-Star Game!) and have flourished in their respective niches.
As said, the starters are under-performing, but, to be honest, this was what was expected by many people. In March, did I really think that Kendrick would still be able to fool people with only a sinker? Did I think Eaton would be able to rise above his resume of mediocrity and stun the city? Did I think Myers was solid enough to flip-flop between starting and closing and then back? Obviously, the answer is no, but what I did think was that our explosive offense could buy our guys a few innings here and there, allowing them to go deeper into games. For example, Kendrick in 20 starts this season has won 8 and only lost 4, still not throwing one wild pitch (which is impressive for a sinker-baller). His ERA (4.74), however, is less than impressive and makes you wonder how he could have managed twice as many wins as losses. Compare this to Oliver Perez of the Mets who has a similar ERA (4.36), just as many appearances/innings and nearly twice as many punch outs (95 to 49), but is a .500 pitcher (6-6). The obvious explanation for this is that the Phillies have simply won more games but, as evidenced by the gravity of tonight's game, the two teams are exactly tied.
Soon enough, we will see two teams battle for first place in the most contested division in the Majors at Shea Stadium. First it will be Johan Santana, who, much like the reception after a funeral, has been good but disappointing. Then it will be Joe Blanton, the mid-season pick-up from the A's with poor 08 numbers but undeniably scary stuff. Then Santana, then Blanton and so on.
Santana is the better pitcher going into the game. That is for sure. What makes baseball different than almost anything else, though, is that there are no definites, no sure-bets, no impossibilities. That is, the better pitcher before the game doesn't always win, and often doesn't.
Ringo Starr once reasoned that because he was the drummer for the greatest band in the world, he must be the greatest drummer in the world. Panglossian quandaries aside, I think this reasoning holds true for baseball, because in the game where something doesn't happen on every pitch but anything can happen on any pitch, we can only look to the scoreboard after the game to see who was really better that day, and I hope tonight, at least for tonight, Joe Blanton will be the best pitcher on the best team in the East.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Pitching, On-Base-Percentage Crucial to Strong Start
The Phillies have played the April Fool for the last several years, only recovering enough to make the playoffs last year. This is particularly troubling to skipper Charlie Manuel, who has watched his team take a 7-12 start in Spring Training, echoing the 4-11 start to last year's regular season.
For the Phillies, a strong April start is crucial and they have showed it to be a priority. For example, the move to give Brett Myers the opening-day start is most significant because it allowed a likely April-18 match-up of Santana/Hamels for the first bout with the Mets. Manuel has given our squad every opportunity to win early, and it shows.
Moreover, Charlie Manuel met with Shane Victorino, who has had a slow start, to urge him to start hitting, now. Whatever Charlie said, it worked for Shane, who went 2-2 with 3 RBIs today in a 6-4 victory over the Tribe.
Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins have both started sluggishly, but they too redeemed themselves this afternoon, Utley going 2-2 with a triple and Rollins 2-3 with two doubles.
The bottom line is that our offense is too good and we have too much depth to not put up runs later this month, so the real factor will be our pitching, particularly relief. With the 5th starting spot and two relief spots still in contention, it is unclear who will be depended upon to keep the Runs Allowed column down. If Eaton can continue to pitch like he did Saturday against the Twins (three scoreless innings), he will be the 5th starter and bump Chad Durbin to one of the open relief spots. This will leave the last spot for Travis Blackley, Clay Condrey or Fabio Castro. None have pitched particularly well, but in the remaining games one will and must step up.
The pitching situation for the Phils is uncertain at best but encouraging at worst. The movement of Myers to the rotation and the acquisition of Lidge create a staff which is much better than that which we finished up with last year. We also have a fresh batch of young pitchers in the minors desperately trying to play in the majors, many of whom had encouraging performances this spring. Carlos Carrasco, who I have mentioned before as a hopeful mid-season relief, was ranked as the 28th best pitching prospect in the country and should only mature and better himself in the minors until called upon.
Aside from pitching, baserunners and similarly OBP will be crucial to a good start. Though posting his highest OBP since 2004 (.344), Jimmy Rollins still does not draw enough walks for a lead-off man and is sometimes impatient at the plate. If he and Victorino can combine for a reasonable number of baserunners for Utley/Howard, the Phils should have no problem establishing a early season NL-East lead.
As far as I can see, the Phillies staff has taken every step possible to start strong and I am very confident that at the start of May, the east will be and will stay ours.
For the Phillies, a strong April start is crucial and they have showed it to be a priority. For example, the move to give Brett Myers the opening-day start is most significant because it allowed a likely April-18 match-up of Santana/Hamels for the first bout with the Mets. Manuel has given our squad every opportunity to win early, and it shows.
Moreover, Charlie Manuel met with Shane Victorino, who has had a slow start, to urge him to start hitting, now. Whatever Charlie said, it worked for Shane, who went 2-2 with 3 RBIs today in a 6-4 victory over the Tribe.
Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins have both started sluggishly, but they too redeemed themselves this afternoon, Utley going 2-2 with a triple and Rollins 2-3 with two doubles.
The bottom line is that our offense is too good and we have too much depth to not put up runs later this month, so the real factor will be our pitching, particularly relief. With the 5th starting spot and two relief spots still in contention, it is unclear who will be depended upon to keep the Runs Allowed column down. If Eaton can continue to pitch like he did Saturday against the Twins (three scoreless innings), he will be the 5th starter and bump Chad Durbin to one of the open relief spots. This will leave the last spot for Travis Blackley, Clay Condrey or Fabio Castro. None have pitched particularly well, but in the remaining games one will and must step up.
The pitching situation for the Phils is uncertain at best but encouraging at worst. The movement of Myers to the rotation and the acquisition of Lidge create a staff which is much better than that which we finished up with last year. We also have a fresh batch of young pitchers in the minors desperately trying to play in the majors, many of whom had encouraging performances this spring. Carlos Carrasco, who I have mentioned before as a hopeful mid-season relief, was ranked as the 28th best pitching prospect in the country and should only mature and better himself in the minors until called upon.
Aside from pitching, baserunners and similarly OBP will be crucial to a good start. Though posting his highest OBP since 2004 (.344), Jimmy Rollins still does not draw enough walks for a lead-off man and is sometimes impatient at the plate. If he and Victorino can combine for a reasonable number of baserunners for Utley/Howard, the Phils should have no problem establishing a early season NL-East lead.
As far as I can see, the Phillies staff has taken every step possible to start strong and I am very confident that at the start of May, the east will be and will stay ours.
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Savery/Blackley control issues boost Tribe over Phils
On Thursday and Friday, the Phillies lost two tough games to the Rays. Eaton started the first, giving up four runs in just two innings. Hamels had a similar outing Friday, going three innings and allowing three runs. Carlos Carrasco, who I still hope and think will be a mid-season savior for the Phillies, pitched five outs, allowing his first runs, six, and walks, four, of the season. Offensively, Ryan Howard continues to amaze, going 2-3 in the first and not playing the second; he is now hitting .458.
Today's game with the Indians had the Phils taking on Fausto Carmona, who won 19 for the Tribe last year. Aside from a double from Werth in the first, Carmona pretty much shut down the Phillies for his three innings. Aussie Travis Blackley got the start for the Phillies, but only pitched five outs while allowing five earned runs, four walks, a home run, and he even balked. On the bright side, three of those five outs were strikeouts. Joe Savery, who's biggest problem has been his lack of control, didn't help himself out while walking three in just two innings.
The excellent blog All Things Philly Sports posted a recent Phillies commercial in which Brad Lidge learns a little bit about his new skipper, well worth watching.
With the Mets' recent loss of Moises Alou on the already injury-battered team, the possibility of seeing the likes of Kenny Lofton at Shea have increased significantly. While he would be a good pick-up offensively, he can't relieve Delgado at first base if needed and so does not really fill the Mets' need for a versatile trouble-shooter. Lofton, who will be 41 in May, has not signed with any team yet and his price tag continues to drop with every day closer to the season. I am personally hoping he winds up in blue-and-orange, if only to raise the average age on the team a little bit.
Today's game with the Indians had the Phils taking on Fausto Carmona, who won 19 for the Tribe last year. Aside from a double from Werth in the first, Carmona pretty much shut down the Phillies for his three innings. Aussie Travis Blackley got the start for the Phillies, but only pitched five outs while allowing five earned runs, four walks, a home run, and he even balked. On the bright side, three of those five outs were strikeouts. Joe Savery, who's biggest problem has been his lack of control, didn't help himself out while walking three in just two innings.
The excellent blog All Things Philly Sports posted a recent Phillies commercial in which Brad Lidge learns a little bit about his new skipper, well worth watching.
With the Mets' recent loss of Moises Alou on the already injury-battered team, the possibility of seeing the likes of Kenny Lofton at Shea have increased significantly. While he would be a good pick-up offensively, he can't relieve Delgado at first base if needed and so does not really fill the Mets' need for a versatile trouble-shooter. Lofton, who will be 41 in May, has not signed with any team yet and his price tag continues to drop with every day closer to the season. I am personally hoping he winds up in blue-and-orange, if only to raise the average age on the team a little bit.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
One month to go, Phillies strengths and weaknesses
With less than a month to go before opening-day, I think it is as good a time as ever to evaluate how the Phillies stand. I will look at the strengths and weaknesses of the team at this point.
Strengths
Hope to see new faces in April, because that is where our next great Phillie will be.
Strengths
- Carlos Carrasco. I mentioned him before as one of the reasons to be hopeful for the Phils, but since then he has only stepped it up, still not having allowed a run. In an article from Monday on phillyburbs.com, Carrasco said he can and will compete for the fifth spot. Frankly, I am rooting him on.
- Ryan Howard. The arbitration hearings in which Howard was awarded his requested $10 million scared a lot of fans, thinking it might leave a debilitatingly sour taste in his mouth. Howard, who arrived with pitchers and catchers, has shown no sign of frustration or stopping so far and is, as Bill Conlin observed, hitting the ball as hard as that $10 mil hit the Phillies. If this pace continues, the Phillies owe him whatever they've got.
- Depth. I realize that this topic has been over-discussed recently, but I believe it is simply worth looking at the Phillies and Mets injury reports. If the pre-season is any indicator of the regular season, even Johan Santana every fifth day won't be able to keep that ship afloat.
- Relief Pitching/Closer. With the loss of Brad Lidge until as late as the second week of the season, the Phillies have had to take a good look at what they're working with. The problem is that the answer is not much. Aside from the still strong and dependable Romero, Condrey and (hopefully) Gordon, the Phillies do not have a lot of options, and this is before the season has started. If the Phillies are going to be able to win games deep into the season, they will need to make some changes.
- Cole Hamels. There is no doubt that Hamels has the stuff to be a Cy-Young contender for at least the next few years. There isn't even very much doubt about his health for this year. What I do doubt, however, is his mental stability. As we saw a few years ago with Brett Myers, good stuff can go unused if a pitcher can't focus under the pressure of national attention. Fortunately, Myers quickly matured and I hope that he can show Hamels a little bit of what he learned.
Hope to see new faces in April, because that is where our next great Phillie will be.
Phils split, beat Jays, lose to Tigers - but still team to beat, according to Smoltz
The Phillies played two games today at 1:05 with split squads taking on the Tigers and the Blue Jays.
Victorino, Dobbs, Burrell and Feliz were among those who stayed home at Bright House Field to play the Tigers, with a number of invitees vying for spots on the roster. J.D. Durbin got the start, going four innings, allowing three runs to score. He was relieved in turn by J.J. Happ, Clay Condrey and Lincoln Holdzkom, a Rule-5 pickup; each allowing a run. Offensively, Brandon Watson, who came up and down from the minors last year for the Nationals, went 2-4 with a double and Gregg Golson contributed with a single, bringing his pre-season average to .800.
The away squad traveled down the road to Dunedin, FL to take on the Blue Jays. The Phils won 6-1 with the help of four scoreless innings from starter Brett Myers. He was followed by Shane Youman, who had three shut out innings, and Ryan Madson, who allowed the only run. Four of the Phils runs came from timely doubles from Carlos Ruiz and Chase Utley, each scoring two.
The biggest stories of the day for me are Brett Myers and Ryan Howard. While not a real test of his durability as a starter, Myers' four innings today were certainly a good sign. Ryan Howard, who appears to be swinging the bat as good as ever in his career, has been his good old aggressive self, but has appeared to cut down on his strikeouts. So far this year he has at 17.6% for strikes, while his figure at the end of last year was 37.6%. I realize that this is not an indicator for April, but it is good news, for sure.
In other news, John Smoltz both advised Cole Hamels to focus on pitching and not financial matters and said the Phils, not the Mets, are the team to beat. Just sayin'.
Victorino, Dobbs, Burrell and Feliz were among those who stayed home at Bright House Field to play the Tigers, with a number of invitees vying for spots on the roster. J.D. Durbin got the start, going four innings, allowing three runs to score. He was relieved in turn by J.J. Happ, Clay Condrey and Lincoln Holdzkom, a Rule-5 pickup; each allowing a run. Offensively, Brandon Watson, who came up and down from the minors last year for the Nationals, went 2-4 with a double and Gregg Golson contributed with a single, bringing his pre-season average to .800.
The away squad traveled down the road to Dunedin, FL to take on the Blue Jays. The Phils won 6-1 with the help of four scoreless innings from starter Brett Myers. He was followed by Shane Youman, who had three shut out innings, and Ryan Madson, who allowed the only run. Four of the Phils runs came from timely doubles from Carlos Ruiz and Chase Utley, each scoring two.
The biggest stories of the day for me are Brett Myers and Ryan Howard. While not a real test of his durability as a starter, Myers' four innings today were certainly a good sign. Ryan Howard, who appears to be swinging the bat as good as ever in his career, has been his good old aggressive self, but has appeared to cut down on his strikeouts. So far this year he has at 17.6% for strikes, while his figure at the end of last year was 37.6%. I realize that this is not an indicator for April, but it is good news, for sure.
In other news, John Smoltz both advised Cole Hamels to focus on pitching and not financial matters and said the Phils, not the Mets, are the team to beat. Just sayin'.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Kendrick lit up in impressive afternoon loss to Braves
The Phillies suffered a brutal 10-1 loss in their first game with the Braves. Kyle Kendrick got the start and gave up seven earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings for an ERA of 12.71. Rosario finished the inning and pitched three more scoreless innings. Tom Gordon got another late-game appearance in the eighth, giving up three runs, only one of which was earned.
Offensively, Victorino contributed with a double in the first and Eric Bruntlett continues to be impressive, going 1-1, bringing his pre-season average to .467.
Also, Carlos Ruiz, Geoff Jenkins and Greg Dobbs all had fielding errors in the first inning.
The Braves offense was brutal, scoring 10 runs with 16 hits, 5 of which were doubles.
In an otherwise forgettable day, Kendrick went 1-1 with a single.
This loss reaffirms my suspicions that it will be the Braves we will be contending with for most of this season. Whether that means the Mets are in first and we will be battling for the wild-card or that we will be vying for first is kind of irrelevant at this point, but I think more attention should be shown to the potentially dominant team from Atlanta.
Offensively, Victorino contributed with a double in the first and Eric Bruntlett continues to be impressive, going 1-1, bringing his pre-season average to .467.
Also, Carlos Ruiz, Geoff Jenkins and Greg Dobbs all had fielding errors in the first inning.
The Braves offense was brutal, scoring 10 runs with 16 hits, 5 of which were doubles.
In an otherwise forgettable day, Kendrick went 1-1 with a single.
This loss reaffirms my suspicions that it will be the Braves we will be contending with for most of this season. Whether that means the Mets are in first and we will be battling for the wild-card or that we will be vying for first is kind of irrelevant at this point, but I think more attention should be shown to the potentially dominant team from Atlanta.
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